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Special Report

Climate change is ringing alarm bells: are coffee production areas in danger?

Today climate still plays a tremendous role in coffee industry, as SCAA (Specialty Coffee Association of
America) stated in their latest report “The blueprint for coffee in a changing climate''; and according to IPCC
(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) forecast, greenhouse gas growth will lead global temperature to
increase approx. +0.5-8.7 ℃. Global warming can also make the weather more extreme, provoking storms, floods
and droughts. Coffee as one of the crops, needs to be cultivated in an average annual temperature of 18-21 ℃, too
high or too low temperatures can extremely harm coffee plants. That is how IPCC state that according to current
climate change speed, cultivated coffee territories will shrink up to 50%, and by 2050, most of those amazing
coffee plantation will not be able to continue growing coffee.
Earlier this year Australian Sydney Institute of Climate Studies published latest academic report, pointing out
that, if global warming continues in the current trajectory, wild coffee beans may be extinct in Sydney by 2080.

Can Arabica become extinct?

During recent 56 years annual coffee produc- Leaf rust is the biggest danger to the coffee
tion grew 3 times and demand grows 5% every year. plants and because market demands faster growth,
Such a rapid growth was possible only thanks to 2 many farmers choose not to grow coffee in shade
500 000 coffee farmers, 80%-90% of whom are small anymore. And as it happened in Mexico and Central
business owners; and for them climate change in cof- America, that is exactly the main reason of leaf rust
fee belt is crucial. spreading there, it has already affected coffee trees
Unlike strong Robusta, Arabica is very sensitive from Mexico to Peru.
to changes. Almost all of produced Arabica beans
come from Ethiopian mountains, this limits its ge-
netic diversity, making it very vulnerable to climate
change. For example, temperature raise in Mexico
brought severe rains, which can even lead to storms
and having no harvest. Mexico is not an exception,
in other dry places coffee cherries also face some
serious troubles. Climate in Central Africa gets hot-
ter and hotter, so the plant flowers fall too early, and
even if not, very often cherries themselves grow dry
and small. And the saddest part is that coffee natu-
ral enemies are better adapted to hot temperatures,
what includes leaves rust.

Climate change will af-
fect every step in producing
2013-2015 Production impact Working places reduction Total damage
coffee. Because of having
too many uncertain risks,
El Salvador ↓378,000 bags 45,000 Export income↓20%
farmers and coffee com-
panies have to spend more
Honduras ↓1,300,000 bags 50,000 Export income ↓45%
money to control the qual-
Guatemala ↓583,000 bags 71,000 Export income ↓42% ity of coffee, including lo-
gistics, which will be also
Nicaragua ↓475,000 bags 64,000 Export income ↓33% affected by global warming.
And as a result of higher
Costa Rica ↓71,000 bags 25,000 Export income ↓28% price for beans, the cup of
coffee will also be more ex-
pensive.

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