Page 57 - #56 English

01

Close look at world coffee beans trade: China potential
According to the International Coffee Organization numbers are so: October 2016, coffee export reached 9 mil-
lion 130 thousand bags, about 547800 tons (60 kg / bag), compared to the same period last year: with the difference
of 280 thousand bags. Arabica export volume shows good results with 71 million 930 thousand bags, 2 million 720
thousand bags more than last year; while Robusta export significantly reduced, 3 million 450 thousand bags last year.
Coffee beans production situation has developed imbalance between demand
and supply in past two years, where demand exceeds
This year coffee production exceeded last years’ supply. So earlier produced reserves partly satisfy
by 1 million 400 thousand bags. Brazil is still one of market needs now.
the leading coffee producing countries, followed by
Vietnam and its high Robusta production.

65%

60%
55%
50%
45% Year
40% -3.3 million 60kg bags. Esitimated deficit between production and con-
sumption in 2015/16
35%
08/090 9/10 10/111 1/12 12/131 3/14 14/151 5/16 16/17
Arabica Robusta Has China become a market with the biggest
Arabica and Robusta production scale in 2008-2016, taken from USDA. consumer potential?
As we see from the diagram, even though Arabica According to the statistics of the London International
is much picky to an environment and soil, it is still Coffee Organization, compared to the global average growth
much more demanded in the market than Robusta, this of 2%, China consumption rate rapidly grows 15% every
year ratio is close to 7:3.
year, indicating big opportunities for Chinese coffee
industry. In general, China coffee consumption is much
Coffee beans consumption: Does demand ex-
ceed supply? less than European, but from business development point
of view, China might be the most potential coffee drinking
country. According to the forecasts, if every China citizen
Global coffee consumption this year has grew for drinks one cup of coffee a day, coffee market here will
1 million 900 thousand bags, comparing to last year; reach 50 billion annual profit, so the entire producing
total consumption reached 151.3 million bags, which chain will create hundred billion USD market.
is about 9078000 tons.
China coffee consumption potential cup/person/year

USA：500 FL/SE：1000 JPN：200 CHN:20

Nowadays, fresh coffee consumption is 87%,
145.4 150.9 147.0 152.1 149.4 146.6 151.3 148.0 while instant coffee hardly gets to 13%. In China in-
stant coffee has a lion share of market, which is 87%,
Year
while fresh coffee has only 16%. In contrast, domestic
▇ consumption；▇ production
instant coffee market size is not keeping up with fresh
Coffee industry consumption in 2014-2015 was coffee market, mainly because customers’ preferences
higher than the output. In the 2015/16, production have changed: now they tend to buy more coffee beans
and sales deficit has reached 3 million 300 thousand and go to coffee shops. Instant coffee growth is ex-
bags. This means that 2012 and 2013 coffee oversupply pected to drop by 8.3% in 2012-2017.

57