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dryspell that hit most of the Brazilian coffee regions in January
last year - when cherries were just entering the crucial state of
bean formation – the drought did not cause much damage to
the coffees here.
“We got about 32,000 bags (of 60-kilogram) here this
year (2015-16 harvest), it’s about the same as last year,” Bressani
told CTI Magazine during a visit to the estate at the end of the
last harvest season. But he ads that had it not been for irrigation
the crop would have suffered negatively, as has been the case in
the majority of the coffee regions across Sao Paulo and Southern
Minas, two regions which alone produce about half of Brazil’s
total coffee harvest.
“Alta Mogiana accounts for up to 50 percent of the
coffee production in Sao Paulo state, and most of the produc-
ers and farms are speaking of a drop in the 2015-16 harvest of
around 20 percent from last year, mostly because of the dryspell
in January which caused a lot of small and hollow beans as the
lack of rain didn’t allow for the cherries to develop into full-size
beans,” he said.
Forecasts for Brazil’s coffee harvest have always been a
guessing game. As the world’s undisputed largest producer and
exporter - home to as much as 40 percent of total world produc-
tion in some years - speculation is always ripe. Nothing moves
the markets in New York and London with more predictability
as any news about changing crop fundamentals in Brazil.
According to the official Brazil Crop Supply Agency,
Conab, the 2015-16 harvest ended as one of the smallest in the
last 10 years at 43.235 million 60-kilogram bags. But as always cause of the late flowering when we in 2014 went without rain
with Brazilian coffee forecasts, figures can be found in a wide from mid-September until the end of October,” Aga Neto said
range. in an interview at the Federation’s headquarters in the town of
Most producers and traders, however, agree with the Patrocinio, Minas Gerais. Based on the latest harvest figures the
overall figures released by Conab that the last harvest - from Cerrado crop is now expected to end at about 4.5 million bags,
which exports are currently being shipped until the new 2016-17 he said.
crop starts reaching the market by the end of June - produced There is no denying that the harvest is late in most
the same or less than that the 2014-15 crop, which according of the coffee growing regions. According to figures from the
to Conab ended at 45.34 million bags. Although many regions Cooxupe cooperative based in the town of Guaxupe the overall
in Sao Paulo, Cerrado and Southern Minas are reporting lower harvest in Cerrado, Southern Minas and Sao Paulo states was 42
crops, other regions have a reversed bi-annual crop cycle hich percent completed by July 25th, 2015, while in previous years at
resulted in higher production in the 2015-16 cycle. Some coffee this date the harvest was between 51 and 65 percent completed.
farms with large areas renovated two years ago also reported “There is no doubt the drought has had an impact,” said
trees to enter the production cycle again in the last harvest. But Cooxupe President Carlos Paulino da Costa. With over 11,000
a whole different story about coffee in Brazil is that the majority members Cooxupe is the biggest coffee cooperative in the world
of Brazilian growers actually are small producers. and accounts for about 12 percent of the total annual harvest in
“The general perception is that everything in Brazil Brazil, or some 5 million bags.
is mechanized and irrigated and that everything is big, from Driving through the state of Minas Gerais where up
the average land size to productivity, but we have a lot of to 60 percent of Brazil’s coffee is grown is simply said a mind
small producers too with only between 3, 4 or 6 hectares,” blowing experience to anyone in coffee. On a crop trip stretched
said Moacir Aga Neto, Head of New Business Development at across 2,500 kilometers of Brazil’s prime coffee lands from the
the Cerrado Coffee Growers Federation. Even in the Cerrado Cerrado region in the northern most part of Minas Gerais across
region, famous for being home to what are among the world’s Sao Paolo state and back in through the coffee belt of Southern
most efficient coffee producers with average yields of around 35 Minas, for hundreds of kilometers all visitors see along the road
bags per hectare, only 30 percent of the growers have access to is coffee, coffee and more coffee.
irrigation. And according to official figures from Brazil’s Agro- Always on the forefront of innovation in coffee, even
culture Ministry a full 87 percent of Brazil’s 300,000 producers smaller producers in Brazil are embarking on selling roast and
are actually small growers with less than 10 hectares of land. ground coffee in the local market to increase the value-added
“The 2015-16 harvest in Cerrado was initially forecast earnings from coffee in Brazil’s booming café culture, for which
to produce 5.5 million bags, but the drought in January was current domestic demand estimated at about a stunning 21 mil-
terrible and we recorded the smallest average bean size ever. lion bags, according to the London-based International Coffee
In addition, the harvest was between 5 and 6 weeks delayed be- Organization.
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